Good pastors are nearsighted, seeing things in and around their local communities that help their congregations meet the needs of the people in their immediate areas. But great pastors are those who can both keep their eyes on the road ahead of them as well as peruse any oncoming traffic or potential hazards on the horizon.
Everyone agrees that times are changing, which means ministry today requires savvy thinking. Hockey legend Wayne Gretzky said that the secret of his success was that while other players skated to where the puck was, he skated to where the puck was going to be. Figuring out where the ministerial puck is going is no easy task, but Rev! assembled a group of individuals to give you some insights as to national culture and religious trends that will undoubtedly affect your church, if you plan to be in local church ministry the next 10 years.
A few years ago I participated in a Leadership Network event, where I was asked to facilitate a discussion on church leadership development in the future. George Barna was in the group. During the conversation, various people chimed in with their thoughts, but George never made a sound. His silence was disconcerting to me. I felt a bit intimidated by the renowned research guru, thinking he was wondering who this “yahoo” was leading the group or where in the world I was going. So I asked, “George, where do you think we’ll be in 10 years?”
He said, “I don’t know.”
I thought, “What kind of futurist is he?”
Barna explained, “The way things are changing these days, the best we can estimate is about five years out.”
So although times are changing rapidly and we have no way of really knowing what the ministry horizon has in store for us, we thought we’d gather some forecasters to help us get a better feel of the trends and where they may be leading us. John Cionca, professor of leadership transformation at Bethel Seminary, Todd Rhoades, founder of ChurchStaffing.com and now with Leadership Network, and Brian Mavis, founder of SermonCentral.com and now with LifeBridge Christian Church and the Externally Focused Church Network, sat down with me over lunch. We talked shop like frat brothers. The topic: How will church be different 10 years from now? Then we collated our list of a dozen predictions and shopped them around to a few others for their input and pushback.
Delving into the future may not seem very pragmatic, but it is important to know what’s happening and where we’re headed, in order to be good stewards of our resources. Investing in cassettes on the verge of going digital wouldn’t be wise. Likewise, creating ministries, buildings, and staffing toward diminishing trends is not a good use of our resources. Although some may see the dark clouds in a few of these ideas, with every loss comes a potential gain. From the compost pile can grow the largest fruit, if we plant well. This is the hope and spirit of those who participated in this conversation.
Fewer Brick-and-Mortar Mega-Campuses (But Not Mega-Ministries)
As Baby Boomers retire in droves, who will pay to build and maintain these giant campuses? Subsequent generations aren’t that interested and as technology improves, multi-site churches will make more sense. Some large ministries have already begun reducing the sizes of their blueprints in order to capitalize on more, smaller venues. You won’t find a 200-seat Starbucks, in spite of its popularity. But you will find intersections with three or four stores. While many churches will become multi-site, half a dozen networks will likely emerge as national “brands,” each with dozens and perhaps hundreds of outlets. This may increase the challenge for less effective preachers, as more people experience great communicators. Mega-ministries, those over 2,000, will likely continue to increase in one way or another.
“E” and Free Publications and Resources: Just-in-time delivery systems that allow customization, made possible by the Internet and improving graphic software, will make print books and curriculum less inviting. Plus, the “open source” philosophy (such as Wikipedia, Craig’s List, LifeChurch.tv), whereby people share resources freely or inexpensively, will create fierce competition with traditional resource providers. Amazon is scanning content from hundreds of thousands of books, allowing search engines to create just in time info. iTunes allows people to purchase individual songs, so you don’t have to buy a compact disc of 15 in order to get two or three that you like, rendering the CD as old school.
