4. Cohort Measure Rate
This is the “40-50 percent” divorce rate number that most people use. It is not a hard, objective number, but a projection, looking at a large group of people marrying within a particular measure of time (a cohort) relative to general life-tables. As such, it provides a sophisticated estimation of the general risk of divorce. As the University of Denver’s Scott Stanley explains frankly, how this number is derived is “crazy complicated”:
“The 40-50 percent number comes from a detailed analysis of various population demographics, including ages, life span projections, etc. It represents a sophisticated projection of a calculated risk, much like the projected life span for babies born today. …[It] is a valid projection under current conditions and it pertains to new, first-time marriages.”
This number is typically and correctly placed in the 40-50 percent range for couples entering their first marriage. Some scholars find good reason for the 50 percent figure while many others place it in the 42-45 percent range. At Focus on the Family, we use this latter range.
Pro: It is the measure most scholars use and is most widely known, giving the larger picture of the overall marital lifetime expectation.
Con: It doesn’t give an objective number of actual divorces.
But here is the most important news concerning one’s life-time risk of divorce. While the 40-50 percent divorce risk number is indeed correct, it actually applies to no one. It is the very rare individual who actually has 40-50 percent risk of divorce. How can that be?
It is because there are a handful of personal life-factors that sociologists have determined significantly affect one’s overall risk of divorce for good or for bad. Due to these factors, many couples will have a significantly lower life-time risk of divorce and many will have a much higher one. A good number of couples marrying today have a risk of divorce of nearly nil. Others and the opposite side of the bell curve have very high risk. Here are some of the major factors mitigating life-factors. On average…
• Cohabitors generally have a 50-80 percent higher likelihood of divorce than non-cohabitors.
• Unfortunately, the general divorce risk for African-Americans is 70 percent while 47 percent for Whites.
• Marrying before age 22 is associated with greater risk of divorce
• Only 36 percent of college graduates will ever divorce.
• Coming from parents who have never divorced reduces divorce risk by 14 percent.
• Being previously divorced elevates one’s risk of divorce.
• Having a collective annual household income of 50k is associated with a 30 percent lower divorce risk.
• Going into a marriage with husband and wife holding a strong personal conviction that marriage is for life protects significantly against divorce.
• Those with a strong common faith have a 35 percent risk of divorce. However, divorce rates among nominal believers are equal to the general population.
• Having one’s first child after marriage reduces divorce risk by 24 percent.
• Marrying as non-virgins is associated with “considerably higher” risk of divorce and “dramatically more unstable first marriages” as scholars state.
So while the 40-50 percent projected rate of divorce risk is true and reliable, there are important personal characteristics that put everyone at different levels of risk, for good and bad. Many people of serious faith and practice, even with some of the above risks, have a tremendously high likelihood of life-long marital success because of the values they hold regarding sex outside of marriage, the sacred and covenantal nature of marriage, and its importance as a vocation.
