These trends have swept across the continent. As recently as 15 years ago, non-religious Americans tended to cluster in the West and Northeast, with the South being a reliably religious Bible Belt. But by 2020, states from coast to coast were filled with nones, even in the Bible Belt.
If these trends continue, the percentage of Americans who identify as Christian could drop from about two-thirds to under one-half within two decades. Such a shift would put us on a level currently seen in countries such as New Zealand.
The Gravitational Pull of Our Secularized World
Secularization has a gravitational pull. Picture it this way: As a near-Earth satellite orbits, the planet’s gravity slowly pulls the satellite down. Every time the satellite circles, it gets a little closer to the ground. This phenomenon is called orbital decay. Eventually, the orbit deteriorates so completely that the satellite crash-lands.
Here the satellite represents people who identify as Christians, and Earth represents the gravitational pull of secular culture. Every year, the satellite of Christian identification gets a little closer to the secular world’s gravitational pull. Christian identification is in orbital decay.
For decades, nations such as the United Kingdom and France experienced the gravitational pull of secularism, but the United States resisted it. Yet religion’s orbital decay is now a statistically significant reality in America. The orbit of religion here might not be as close to a crash as it is in other Western nations, but we can no longer ignore or dismiss secularization. That has been a 30-year trend, until…
The Meteor Called 2020
While the satellite of religion followed a predictable orbital-decline path for decades, 2020 collided with that satellite like a meteor. COVID-19, disruption, tension, and everything else that happened that year spun the path of religious engagement off course in several ways.
Let me share a few of those changes:
- Gen Z men attend church more than Gen Z women do, a shift unlike anything in American religious history. Even The New York Times has noticed: “Among Generation Z Christians, this dynamic is playing out in a stark way: The men are staying in church, while the women are leaving at a remarkable clip.” If sustained, this is big news.
- Along with deeper spiritual hunger among young men, we’re also seeing increased spiritual hunger among younger generations. The majority of Gen Z teens are interested and “motivated to learn more about Jesus,” one Barna article explained. I’ve talked with pastors who report baptizing more young adults in recent years than in the entire previous decade. Many of these new Christians come from secular, unchurched backgrounds, suggesting a rising spiritual hunger that transcends traditional church boundaries. Again, this is big news.
- The rise of the nones has stopped—or at least paused. Sociologist Ryan Burge, who keeps an eye on these things, said plainly: “The share of non-religious Americans has stopped rising in any meaningful way.” That’s a change in a three-decade trend—and more big news.
- Different church traditions have recovered from the pandemic unevenly. For example, COVID hit African American churches particularly hard. Some Black congregations are flourishing with resilient adaptability; others have resumed in-person worship at a lower level than other ethnic groups, with substantially more members moving online. Scott Thumma of the Hartford Institute for Religion Research explained, “Attendance at African American churches suffered somewhat but has mostly rebounded to about what it was before the pandemic—though now a number of those participants are virtual rather than in person.”
- Bible sales have increased noticeably, “fueled by first-time buyers,” according to a front-page Wall Street Journal article. In our moment of cultural disruption, many people are turning to Scripture and faith communities for answers.
- Finally, more church members are shifting from one congregation to another. Many churches have experienced an influx of new attendees, while others have lost longtime members. Churches have had to adapt to a rapidly changing landscape in their discipleship work. Some are struggling, while others thrive.
How to Respond
It’s vital for us to be like Issacharites, who “understood the times and knew what Israel should do” (1 Chronicles 12:32, CSB). This moment of disruption presents the church with challenges as well as opportunities. Yes, the gravitational pull of secularism is strong, but an evident, often-surprising spiritual hunger offers opportunities for spreading the gospel.
People are asking profound questions about meaning, purpose, and faith. That creates openings for the church to engage in meaningful ways. We must willingly adapt to new realities, while remaining lashed to the truth of God’s Word and the hope found in Christ.
Paul considered the apparent contradiction of a “wide door” for ministry and “many adversaries” as a net gain for the gospel. As we look at the State of the Church in 2025, we likewise see both disruption and opportunity, uncertainty and hope. The trends of declining Christian identification and the rise of the nones are real and pressing.
That said, we have no reason to consider these current trends inevitable or inescapable. The evidence of rising spiritual hunger among many people offers the church a moment to step into the cultural tumult with the good news of Jesus Christ.
The gravitational pull of secularism may be strong, but the transformative power of the gospel is stronger. Let’s seize this moment and embrace the opportunities to show and share Christ’s love in a world that is searching for hope.
