At the end of his first epistle to the Corinthians, Paul penned a line that hasn’t made it onto many T-shirts or coffee mugs. The words don’t inspire us with visions of the church advancing into the future. First Corinthians 16:9 (ESV) starts out positively enough: “For a wide door of effective work has opened to me.” But the last clause turns away from this seemingly positive vision: “and there are many adversaries.”
In this verse, we feel a tension or contradiction between the opportunity of a “wide door” and the difficulty of “many adversaries.” But Paul saw things differently. For the apostle, seasons of uncertainty helped birth opportunities for the gospel.
Now, a quarter of a century into the third millennium since Paul, church leaders also face a challenging moment of cultural turbulence. We’re walking through a season in which cultural shifts significantly impact the church. Again and again, the church faces “many adversaries” and issues. Instead of embracing fear or denial, I think naming these issues will help us navigate them. Facts are our friends as we assess the condition of the church, and new State of the Church research from Barna and Gloo provides a helpful cache of accurate, insightful data.
That said, we can’t assess the church’s condition simply by running through a series of statistics. We must move from the details to the larger issues at play. So I want to examine the state of the church from a big-picture perspective. Let’s explore two major trends shaping the church today, before considering implications for our faith communities.
The Changing Face of Faith: Two Trends Defining the Landscape
America’s religious landscape has been undergoing profound transformation. Two trends vividly illustrate this: the rise of the “nones” (people with no religious affiliation) and the declining percentage of people who identify as Christians. These realities highlight a significant shift in the perception and practice of faith in our society.
Trend #1: The Rise of the Nones
The General Social Survey, which has provided data since 1972, shows a gradual but unmistakable increase in Americans who identify as non-religious. For decades, this group of nones tracked consistently at about 5%-6% of the population. That shifted in the late 1980s and early 1990s, when the numbers began to climb.
Throughout 30 years, the number of nones has increased to almost 30%. Each year, the number of Americans who identify as Christian drops nearly 1%, while the number of non-religious Americans grows at a similar rate. This rise is one of the most important religious trends in the Western world over the last generation.
Now, the rise of the nones doesn’t necessarily mean that 1% of Americans “deconstruct” or abandon their faith each year. Instead, many people who previously described their religion as “Christian” on a survey question now choose to answer with none. This trend underscores a generational shift—a pattern that Pew, Gallup, and other researchers have also noted. The number of non-religious people has been growing. While older generations may have held onto Christian identity despite waning personal conviction, younger generations refuse a label that doesn’t align with their beliefs.
Such generational differences play a significant role in this changing landscape. Compared to their predecessors, younger generations start at a different baseline of religious affiliation. While people often become more religious as they age, younger cohorts start out as markedly less religious. Thus, their trajectory is unlikely to mirror that of older generations.
Trend #2: The Decline in Identifying as Christian
Directly related to the rise of the nones is the decline of Christian identification. Church leaders can acknowledge this shift without becoming too dramatic or buying sensational headlines that Christianity is vanishing. Although the numbers have shifted, evangelical Christianity is not collapsing.
Compared to two or three decades ago, fewer people now identify as Christian. Again, the shift relates to generational differences. The Christian affiliation of 18- to 35-year-olds has declined significantly, accompanied by a corresponding rise in the nones.
